The 20th edition of the Global Risks Report 2025 published in January. It has been long time, but we want to share the details again for those who are not aware of it.
The WEF Global Risks Report 2025 paints a concerning picture of a world facing growing divisions and accelerating risks over both the short-term (2 years) and long-term (10 years). The report emphasizes the increasing severity of geopolitical tensions, environmental degradation, and societal challenges, compounded by technological risks. It highlights a “geopolitical recession,” supercharged economic tensions, and the polarizing effects of technology. Environmental risks, especially extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and pollution, are consistently ranked as the most pressing long-term concerns. The report also addresses specific risks like state-based armed conflict, geoeconomic confrontation, misinformation, and the implications of “super-ageing” societies.
Key Themes & Findings:
- Geopolitical Instability & Conflict:
- Increased risk of State-Based Armed Conflict: Ranked as the #1 short-term risk for 2025, climbing from #8 the previous year. “Close to one-quarter of survey respondents (23%) selected State-based armed conflict (proxy wars, civil wars, coups, terrorism, etc.) as the top risk for 2025.”
- “Geopolitical Recession”: Multilateralism is weakening. “The growing vacuum in ensuring global stability at a multilateral level will lead governments around the world increasingly to take national security matters into their own hands.” Military spending is on the rise. “World military expenditure increased for the ninth consecutive year in 2023, reaching a total of $2.4 trillion.”
- Worsening Humanitarian Crises: Conflicts exacerbate humanitarian issues and can lead to increased recruitment by armed groups. The report mentions Sudan, Mali, and Haiti as countries where humanitarian crises risk deepening and fueling violence.
- Environmental Risks – Urgent and Long-Term Threat:
- Dominant Long-Term Concern: Environmental risks overwhelmingly dominate the long-term (10-year) risk landscape. “Nearly all environmental risks are included in the top 10.”
- Extreme Weather Events: Ranked as the #1 risk over the next decade for the second year running.
- Biodiversity Loss & Ecosystem Collapse: Ranks #2 over the 10-year horizon, showing a significant deterioration compared to its short-term ranking.
- Pollution: A consistently high-ranking long-term risk. The report highlights specific pollutants, including PFAS (“forever chemicals”), microplastics, and nitrogen. “Concerns about Pollution, according to our historical GRPS data, have remained a top 10 long-term risk, and this year also ranked #6 over the two-year time horizon.”
- Economic Tensions & Disruptions:
- Geoeconomic Confrontation: Ranked #3 in the short term, driven by geopolitical tensions, inequality, and societal polarization. This includes sanctions, tariffs, and investment screening. “Deployment of economic levers by global or regional powers to reshape economic interactions between nations, restricting goods, knowledge, services, or technology with the intent of building self-sufficiency, constraining geopolitical rivals and/or consolidating spheres of influence.”
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Highlighted as a significant risk.
- Crime and Illicit Economic Activity: Increasing in prominence. “Crime and illicit economic opportunity, which has increased 16 positions year-on-year to #15 in the 10-year ranking.”
- Industrial policy: “The world is already in an era of industrial policy, with a high number of non-tariff barriers impacting trade relations.”
- Societal Risks – Polarization & Inequality:
- Societal Polarization: A prominent short-term risk.
- Inequality: A major concern, contributing to geoeconomic confrontation and societal unrest. “Inequality (wealth, income) is #7 and Societal polarization is even higher, at #4.”
- Involuntary Migration:
- Technological Risks – AI & Frontier Technologies:
- Adverse Outcomes of AI Technologies: A growing concern, especially regarding dual-use applications. The report cites an example where an AI system used for drug discovery was repurposed to generate toxic compounds. “Within only six hours, 40,000 compounds at least as toxic as the sample nerve agent had been generated.”
- Cyber Espionage and Warfare: A persistent and evolving threat.
- Data Misuse: The report notes the divergence in regulations regarding data usage and the potential for misuse of surveillance capabilities. Regulations like GDPR are mentioned as attempts to enhance personal data protection.
- Demographic Shifts – Super-Ageing Societies:
- “Pensions crises and labour shortages in the long-term care sector are likely to become acute problems, with no easy fix for governments.”
- Structural Forces:
- The report identifies four “structural forces” that shape global risks: technological, geostrategic, climatic, and demographic. These forces are converging and accelerating instability. “We are continuing to witness how these structural forces are converging, accelerating and creating instability in societies, economies and institutions.”
- Risk Interconnections & Compounding Effects:
- The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of risks, where one risk can exacerbate others (e.g., conflict intensifying humanitarian crises). “State-based armed conflict is a clear example of the interconnected nature of risks and of their compounding effects.”
Key Risks by Time Horizon:
- Short-Term (2 Years): State-based armed conflict, extreme weather events, geoeconomic confrontation, societal polarization, cyber espionage and warfare, and misinformation and disinformation.
- Long-Term (10 Years): Extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to Earth systems, natural resource shortages, and pollution.
Methodology:
The report is based on the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which gathers insights from a diverse group of experts and leaders across various sectors and regions. The GRPS assesses the severity and likelihood of 33 global risks over different time horizons.
Areas to Watch:
- The potential for unexpected developments in technological risks, given their volatile risk perceptions.
- The effectiveness of multilateral institutions in addressing global challenges, given the trend of “geopolitical recession.”
- The dual use of AI and biotech, with the potential for military applications.
- The impact of Pollution on densely populated countries.
- The increasing impact of climate change on migration patterns.
Conclusion:
The Global Risks Report 2025 serves as a stark warning about the complex and interconnected challenges facing the world. The report urges stakeholders to address these risks proactively and collaboratively to prevent a further fracturing of the global landscape. The dominance of environmental concerns in the long term underscores the need for urgent and sustained action to mitigate climate change and protect biodiversity.
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